The World Meteorological Organization reports that a strong El Niño is steadily intensifying and is expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August-October 2026 season. The development is likely to increase the probability of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and drive significant changes in global rainfall patterns.
Forecasts from leading global modeling centers indicate that seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies in key monitoring regions are expected to exceed 2.9°C. This intensification will be influenced by exceptionally warm global oceans and the anticipated development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern where the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than average while the eastern portion becomes cooler. Additionally, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average.
The projected temperature trends show a high likelihood of above-average conditions across most land masses. The strongest signals are expected in Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, and eastern Asia. Other regions facing significant temperature shifts include Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Africa, much of South America, and New Zealand.
Rainfall patterns are expected to follow a classic El Niño footprint, bringing wetter conditions to some areas while increasing drought risks in others. The August-October 2026 outlook suggests wetter-than-normal conditions for the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, and Southern Europe.
The WMO is mobilizing its community to provide climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health prepare for potential impacts. The organization is focusing on helping vulnerable communities prepare for hazards including droughts, floods, and wildfires.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. These events typically occur every two to seven years and generally last between nine and 12 months.
