In a recent announcement, the US Department of the Treasury disclosed its projections for privately-held net marketable borrowing for the upcoming quarters of April to June 2024 and July to September 2024.
For the April to June 2024 period, the Treasury anticipates a borrowing requirement of $243 billion in privately-held net marketable debt. This estimation factors in an anticipated end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion. Notably, this borrowing estimate reflects an increase of $41 billion from the figures provided in January 2024. This upward revision is primarily attributed to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning-of-quarter cash balance.
Looking ahead to the July to September 2024 quarter, the Treasury projects a significant increase in borrowing, with an estimated $847 billion in privately-held net marketable debt. This forecast incorporates an expected end-of-September cash balance of $850 billion.
Reflecting on the previous quarter, spanning January to March 2024, the Treasury borrowed $748 billion in privately-held net marketable debt. This borrowing activity concluded with a cash balance of $775 billion. It’s worth noting that the January 2024 estimates had projected borrowing of $760 billion and an assumed end-of-March cash balance of $750 billion. However, actual privately-held net marketable borrowing was $12 billion lower. This variance can be attributed to higher cash receipts and lower outlays, which were somewhat offset by a $25 billion increase in the ending cash balance.
These projections underscore the Treasury’s ongoing efforts to manage the nation’s finances amid evolving economic conditions. The revisions in borrowing estimates reflect adjustments necessitated by changes in cash flows and fiscal dynamics. As the government navigates fiscal challenges, these forecasts provide insights into its borrowing needs and financial planning strategies.
